COVID-19 Vaccines Saved Fewer Lives Than Claimed: Stanford Study

Covid-19 Vaccines: A Numbers Game

In 2022, the World Health Organization (WHO) claimed that the vaccines saved 14.4 million lives globally in the first year. This figure later rose to 20 million. However, the new Stanford study paints a different picture. Their model suggests that the total number of lives saved by the vaccines throughout the pandemic is closer to 2.5 million, considerably less than the WHO’s estimate.

Lives Saved by Covid Vaccines

Age Group	% of Total Lives Saved	Lives Saved
0-19	0.01%	299
20-29	0.07%	1,808
30-39	0.9%	22,183
40-49	2.3%	58,690
50-59	7.1%	179,702
60-69	20.5%	519,836
≥70*	57.3%	1,451,145
≥70**	11.8%	299,205

It’s crucial to understand the reason for this significant discrepancy in figures. The researchers believe that previous estimates were overly optimistic. They suggest that the infection fatality rate and vaccine effectiveness were overestimated. Furthermore, the rapid decline in vaccine protection and the number of people already infected before the vaccine rollout were not adequately considered.

Who Benefited the Most?

According to the study, nine out of ten lives saved by the vaccine were those of people aged 60 and above. Among young people under 20, the vaccine saved only around 200 lives, and for those aged 20-30, the figure was approximately 1,800. Strikingly, saving one life in the under-30 age group required 100,000 vaccine doses, compared to 5,400 doses overall. This highlights that the greatest benefit of the vaccine accrued to the elderly population, who were at the highest risk of infection.

The researchers have questioned blanket vaccination policies. They argue that these findings offer crucial lessons for future vaccine distribution and policy. Professor John Ioannidis of Stanford University and lead author of the study stated, “I believe the initial estimates were based on several parameters that do not match our current understanding.” He added that it would be prudent to target populations that would receive the most benefit, and to avoid those with questionable risk-benefit and cost-benefit ratios.

In the UK, over 17,000 people have applied for the government’s vaccine injury compensation scheme, claiming that their loved ones suffered harm from the vaccines. The addition of warnings for myocarditis and pericarditis in mRNA vaccines by manufacturers in June is a concerning development, particularly for younger populations.

What Next? Lessons for Future Pandemics

This study, published in the ‘JAMA Health Forum’, suggests that if we face another pandemic in the future, we need to be more clinically precise about the risk-benefit ratio. This means policymakers must more carefully assess the benefits and harms of vaccines and determine who should receive them and when, to optimise resource allocation and avoid exposing people to unnecessary risks.

This research reminds us that science is constantly evolving. Initial estimates, often based on limited data, can change over time. The crucial point is that we continually adapt our understanding and policies based on new evidence. We must maintain an open mind and welcome new information, even if it challenges our previous assumptions. After all, human health and safety should remain our paramount priority.